Tuesday, September 16, 2014

9 Other Notable Games

These games don't involve teams that placed in the AP top 25 poll this week, but they are games I consider either interesting to me or games that in my mind have some significance.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech couldn't keep the momentum going after going to Columbus and taking down Ohio State as they fell 28-21 to East Carolina back on their home field. They fell behind 21-0 and rallied back only to lose in the final seconds. Georgia Tech jumped out to a huge 35-10 lead over Georgia Southern, actually fell behind 38-35 and then rallied on the last drive to win 42-38. So where does that leave us when these two teams meet? I'm really not sure. I'll take the Hokies to win the ACC opener for both and to avoid a second straight home loss.
My Call: Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 20

Iowa at Pittsburgh
The Hawkeyes will look to bounce back after losing the battle for Iowa to Iowa State. They'll take on a Pittsburgh team that won over Florida International, but not without a few issues of their own. This should be one of those defensive struggles that's decided in the final quarters. I'll go with Pittsburgh. I have more faith in them to come up with the necessary play on offense than I do in an Iowa team that's looked bad offensively and is coached by Greg Davis.
My Call: Pittsburgh 21, Iowa 13

Maryland at Syracuse
These two teams were ACC brothers for one year. That means they'll now meet up as out of conference foes. I'll take the Orange as long as their QB (Terrel Hunt) can keep his composure and avoid being thrown out. He did get tossed in Syracuse's first game against FCS Villanova for throwing a punch. He maintained his cool against Central Michigan and the Cuse won big.
My Call: Syracuse 34, Maryland 31

North Carolina at East Carolina
ECU is no joke, people. They gave South Carolina all they wanted in Columbia (the Gamecocks beat Georgia the following week) and then went into Blacksburg and took down Virginia Tech. I'll take them to keep the momentum going against UNC. Shane Carden and these Pirates have a believer. This one will be close though.
My Call: East Carolina 30, North Carolina 27

Rutgers at Navy
Score one for some of our future Navy seals. The Scarlet Knights will have a tough time recovering from that heartbreaker against Penn State. I think that Midshipmen triple option offense will have a lot of success against their defense.
My Call: Navy 28, Rutgers 17

Utah at Michigan
Man oh man... this game is so tempting to pick the upset and take Utah. Michigan has looked very poor these last two weeks, getting blanked by Notre Dame and struggling with Miami (Ohio) for the longest time before they finally pulled away late. However, it's hard to know if Utah is really any good themselves. Yes, they've won their two games with ease, but they came against Idaho State and a horrible looking Fresno State team. If this game were in Salt Lake City, I'd take the Utes and not think twice. In Ann Arbor though, I'll take the Wolverines by a couple points.
My Call: Michigan 33, Utah 31

Northern Illinois at Arkansas
Arkansas got their first win over a 'Power 5' team in the Bret Bielema era in Lubbock, pounding Texas Tech of the Big 12 49-28. Northern Illinois is off to a 3-0 start taking out Presbyterian at home and then Northwestern and UNLV on the road these last two weeks. Can the Huskies make it 3 for 3 on the road? I'm going to say they don't. They could have some success through the air against the Razorback secondary, but like Texas Tech, I don't think they'll be able to do enough to combat a dangerous Arkansas rushing attack. The Razorbacks control the tempo and get the win.
My Call: Arkansas 38, Northern Illinois 28

California at Arizona
Although Cal has had a very poor last two seasons where they combined to go 4-20 in the last year of the Jeff Tedford era and then the first year of the Sonny Dykes era, they have reason for optimism that a turnaround in Berkeley could be coming. They have an excellent looking QB in true sophomore Jared Goff. Give a QB like him to an offensive guru such as Sonny Dykes and I'd be optimistic for the future myself. In the meantime, Arizona has had some struggles against UT-San Antonio and Nevada. Granted the Roadrunners having a good thing going in Texas under Larry Coker while the Wolf Pack isn't a bad Mountain West program, but there's some cause for concern in Tucson. The Wildcats better not overlook these Bears in an eye on the Oregon game or else they'll go down. I think it'll be another struggle, but that the Wildcats find a way.
My Call: Arizona 41, California 34

San Diego State at Oregon State
If you've been waiting for me to finally pick an upset this week, congratulations. This is where I am calling it. San Diego State came oh so close to upsetting North Carolina in Chapel Hill a couple weeks back, falling by a score of 31-27. Of course Oregon State looking a bit shaky against a bad Portland State team and then having to hold off Hawaii in a 38-30 victory is playing a major factor in this pick as well. C'mon Aztecs, make me look good here. I'll call the upset by the same score they lost the UNC game by. I believe in breaks going the other way in a game decided by the same score.
My Call: San Diego State 31, Oregon State 27

Top 25 Predictions (sans Auburn)

AP Poll rankings once again are applied. After last week's predictions, my record on the season is now at 83-15. I only pick straight up; so yeah, that can help explain the great record. I'm sure if I picked against the spread, my record would be a ton worse. But since I don't really like to bet on games, I don't really do that. This will be sort of a limited week for me in terms of number of games I'll be picking, just 23 games. Anyway, here's my picks for the top 25 teams for this week.

#22 Clemson at #1 Florida State
Revenge is still obviously the theme for Clemson, but my thoughts on this game have changed some now that we now Florida State QB and Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston was suspended for the entirety of this game for allegedly shouting obscenities while standing on a table on the FSU campus. He allegedly said "Fuck her right in the pussy." I'm usually not the judgmental type, but Jameis seems to get himself surrounded in some type of controversy quite often. With Jameis out, the Noles will turn to backup Sean McGuire. . I think the Tigers will keep this one closer now that they won't have to deal with Jameis, but I also think the Noles have enough talent around Sean McGuire to at least keep this one close enough to pull it out at the end. I just don't trust Clemson; sorta the way I don't trust the Arizona Cardinals like I said in my NFL predictions blog for this week.
My Call: Florida State 24, Clemson 20

#2 Oregon at Washington State
Beating Oregon requires three characteristics... being physical, being able to run the ball and an ability to play some defense. Unfortunately for Wazzu, they strike out in all three phases and they'll strike out on the field against the Ducks as well. Sure, QB Connor Halliday could end up with some gaudy stats at the end, but the Cougar defense will get lit up like a Christmas tree. I bet Marcus Mariotta will watch the 4th quarter from the sidelines.
My Call: Oregon 59, Washington State 28

Florida at #3 Alabama
An exciting conference opener for Florida resulted in a somewhat controversial three overtime 36-30 win over the Kentucky Wildcats. They'll have to be much improved in a week if they expect to take out the Crimson Tide on the road. Anything's possible, but I just can't see so much improvement happening. The Gator secondary should do a decent enough job on WR Amari Cooper and as a result, limit QB Blake Sims, but T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry will do plenty to take the pressure off Sims and the Gator offense won't have enough offense to pull this one off. Competition for Bama should be better than it was against Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss, but they'll walk away 4-0.
My Call: Alabama 34, Florida 17

#4 Oklahoma at West Virginia
In what could turn out to be a better game than a lot of experts expect, a better looking Mountaineer team that won at Maryland and gave #3 Alabama all they wanted will look to make a major statement at home with a win over Big 12 favorite Oklahoma. There's no doubt the Mounties can put up some points and that they should be spurred on by what should be an excited home crowd in Morgantown, but can they get enough stops defensively to pull off the upset? I'm gonna say not quite. The Sooner defense should be able to do that while Travor Knight comes up with his best effort of the new season to this point to help OU escape a rabid Milan Puskar Stadium.
My Call: Oklahoma 38, West Virginia 31

#6 Texas A&M at SMU
38 points? What the hell happened against Rice, Aggies? Putting up less than 50 in a game should be considered a disappointment for you guys! Eh, seriously, it didn't matter that they were a little out of it in that one and it wouldn't matter if the same applied here. SMU is just THAT bad, so much so that now former head coach June Jones just re-signed. Texas A&M can name their score here and they'll come out a little more focused in this one.
My Call: Texas A&M 52, SMU 7

Mississippi State at #8 LSU
For Mississippi State to go into Baton Rouge and come out with a win, they're going to need a Heisman type of performance from QB Dak Prescott. Dak is built like a bulldozer at 235 pounds and thus far, he has shown a lot of improvement as a passer. While he's got a ton of athleticism and is tough to bring down, this will be his first real test of the season. No disrespect intended to UAB, Southern Miss and South Alabama, but none of those teams have anywhere near the type of defense he'll be matched up against in this one. I wouldn't be flat out shocked if the Bulldogs scratched and clawed their way to a victory here, but until I see it, I won't believe they'll do it. LSU has proven themselves as a consistent top tier SEC team. Mississippi State has shown itself to be solid but not spectacular in the Dan Mullen era. Give me LSU till Mullen's team shows it can win a game like this.
My Call: LSU 35, Mississippi State 24

Eastern Michigan at #11 Michigan State
Oregon ran Sparty off the field in the 2nd half of that showdown in Eugene. MSU sat around this week undoubtedly pissed off about it. They'll get to take out their frustrations on an Eastern Michigan team that is just God awful. I wouldn't be surprised if the Spartans aren't initially into this game after the Duck game kinda fell apart on them, but it won't matter. They can name their score in what will be a blowout over a very overmatched team.
My Call: Michigan State 49, Eastern Michigan 0

Troy at #13 Georgia
Georgia is coming off a tough loss to South Carolina on the road. If they were playing a team with any kind of pulse this game, they could be vulnerable. Good news for them is Troy is not such a team. Like Michigan State, I wouldn't be too surprised if they started this game out a little slowly just because their minds may still be on that game with the Gamecocks that I'm sure they feel they let slip away, but they'll eventually get into it and run all over the Trojans. No contest here.
My Call: Georgia 52, Troy 3

#14 South Carolina at Vanderbilt
And sometimes when a team is coming off a big win like South Carolina is, you think there's a possibility they could be vulnerable the following week if they were playing a team with some sort of pulse. Look what happened to Southern Cal in Chestnut Hill against Boston College after the Trojans won a big game at Stanford the week before. Like Georgia though, good news for the Gamecocks is Vanderbilt seems to be back to the pre-James Franklin days. James Franklin had that program very competitive, but he took off for Penn State and it seems like any fighting spirit from the Commodores took off with him. South Carolina could come out of the gates slow, but this is a bad looking Vandy team. Even if they show up half drunk, South Carolina should cruise.
My Call: South Carolina 34, Vanderbilt 6

Indiana at #18 Missouri
Mizzou is a team nobody's really talking about too much. They've been solid the last two weeks in wins over Toledo and Central Florida. Now they get to take on an Indiana team looking for redemption after the Hoosiers dropped a wild one against Bowling Green by a score of 45-42. No redemption here for Indiana. They have a defense that won't be able to stop Missouri from doing what they want when they want and while the offense may put up some points, they won't put up enough points to keep up in this one.
My Call: Missouri 52, Indiana 28

Bowling Green at #19 Wisconsin
Can the Falcons make it two in a row over the Big 10? It'll be a tougher task this week in Madison against the Badgers. Although Wisconsin came out dead against Western Illinois, remember they were coming off a heartbreaking loss to LSU in Arlington. This time, they'll be fully rested and ready to go coming off a bye week. Expect the Badgers to come out stronger in this one and take Bowling Green behind the woodshed. The MAC doesn't get this one against the Big 10. Melvin Gordon ought to be able to run wild in a rout.
My Call: Wisconsin 45, Bowling Green 20

Virginia at #21 BYU
Gotta admit Virginia has really surprised me so far. Beating Louisville 23-21 proved to me that perhaps their close loss to UCLA wasn't a fluke. They'll have to take their act on the road this week to Provo to take on a Brigham Young team off to a 3-0 start. Good news for UVA is they were horrible a year ago and yet still managed to beat BYU 16-14. I do think their defense can keep them around in this one. However, I just think the Cougars will find a way to get a little bit of payback on their home field. The Cavs make them earn it though.
My Call: BYU 24, Virginia 16

Miami (FL) at #24 Nebraska
Back in 2001, the Miami Hurricanes were the toast of college football. They went undefeated en route to their fifth national championship, which was their last one. Nebraska was the victim in the national championship game in a complete shellacking by a 37-14 score in a game that could have been even worse on the scoreboard had the Canes really wanted it to be. That was also the last time these two teams played one another on the football field. The stakes won't be nearly as high in this one nor are the teams nearly as good, but it's a chance for both teams to pick up a solid non-conference victory in hopes of gaining momentum for the rest of the season. Honestly, I have no idea which way to lean on this one. Both are very similar teams who will lean on their star running backs. For Miami, it's Duke Johnson. For Nebraska, it's Ameer Abdullah. In a flip of the coin, I'll take the Huskers just because it's in Lincoln. If the Canes win, they can thank me for not jinxing them.
My Call: Nebraska 27, Miami 24

Auburn at Kansas State (Game Preview and Prediction)

Both teams had this past Saturday off to get ready for this Thursday night game. Auburn has started this season off 2-0 with wins over Arkansas and San Jose State while Kansas State also has a 2-0 record coming into this one, with an easy win over Stephen F. Austin and a come from behind 32-28 win over Iowa State on the road. Auburn is ranked fifth in the AP Poll this week while Kansas State checks in at number 20 in the polls. Last season's road opener in Baton Rouge against LSU was a first half nightmare for Auburn; they fell behind 21-0 at halftime and although they played much better in the second half, still lost to LSU 35-21. However, the circumstances in that game were a little different than they will be in this one. As an Auburn fan, this isn't me taking anything away from LSU's win over Auburn a year ago, I give all the credit to LSU for kicking Auburn's butt, but starting QB Nick Marshall had only been with the team for five weeks and it was the first true road game for what was a pretty young team; and Tiger Stadium is about as tough a road environment as there is in college football. Bill Snyder Family Stadium should be rocking on Thursday night, but I think this Auburn team will be more ready for their first true road game as well as the environment that will come with it than last year's team was. WR Sammy Coates was held out of the San Jose State game as a precaution, so I imagine he would have played if the Tigers really felt they needed him. I expect he'll be back in there on Thursday night.

Their opponent will be the Kansas State Wildcats of the Big 12. Auburn's defense will need to be ready for QB Jake Waters. He is a true dual threat guy sort of in the mold of Nick Marshall. Now Waters isn't as fast or athletic as Marshall, but he did rush for 6 touchdowns a year ago and has 4 touchdown rushes on the ground through two games so far this year. I'd consider him a better thrower than Marshall. The biggest weapon Waters has to throw to is a wide receiver by the name of Tyler Lockett. He really broke out in his junior season; catching 81 passes for 1,262 yards and he also hauled in 11 TD catches. The Auburn secondary will have its work cut out for them trying to slow him down. Aside from Waters in the running game, running back Charles Jones has been the main threat for the Wildcats rush attack. On defense, the most accomplished player on the Kansas State defense would be senior defensive end Ryan Mueller. A year ago, he lived in the backfield of opposing offenses recording 18.5 TFL and 11.5 sacks. True freshman outside linebacker Elijah Lee is a guy the Auburn offensive line will want to keep under control; he has recorded 2.5 sacks in the first two games of his college career. Another front seven guy to watch out for is sophomore defensive end Jordan Willis. In the secondary,  junior college transfer Danzel McDaniel and senior Randall Evans seem to be the leaders. McDaniel transferred to Kansas State via Dodge City Community College in Kansas. He earned All-Jayhawk Conference honors in his lone year there. Evans walked on at Kansas State to begin his college career before earning a scholarship prior to his sophomore season. He is a force against the pass; deflecting 21 passes the past two years. He already has an interception on the young season; the fourth of his career. He'll have his work cut out for him matching up against one of Sammy Coates or JUCO transfer D'haquille Williams.

Of course the Kansas State football program is coached by the great Bill Snyder. He was hired in 1989 by the university to turn around what had been a program that only had four winning seasons since 1935 at the time of his hire. Snyder's first season in Manhattan was unmemorable as his first Wildcat team went 1-10, but after that, he helped the program take off like a rocket. 1993 was the program's first very good year under Coach Snyder, they went 9-2-1 and won what was then known as the Cotton Bowl by a 52-17 score over the Wyoming Cowboys. Today, the Cotton Bowl is known as the Cactus Bowl for those who care. Snyder's first tenure at Kansas State lasted from 1989 through 2005 where he won 136 games. He was a 7 time conference coach of the year winner, first a three time Big 8 Conference Coach of the Year winner until he and the Wildcats became a member of the Big 12 in 1996. The formation of the Big 12 resulted in the end of the Big 8 as well as the old Southwest Conference. Snyder would temporarily retire after two disappointing seasons in 2004 and 2005. For three years, the K-State program was run by Ron Prince. After Prince couldn't prove to be the guy to keep Kansas State at the levels of success they attained under Snyder, they fired him and brought Snyder back to coach the team in 2009. Since coming back, Snyder has won 44 games, including 21 over a two year stretch in 2011 and 2012, getting the Kansas State program back to the high standards they are used to under his guidance. As I mentioned above, the Wildcats play their games in Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Yes, he has the stadium named after him and it's very much deserved. Snyder Family Stadium opened in September of 1968. It was known as KSU Stadium until November of 2005 when the university changed the name, naming it after their great coach.

As far as this game goes, I'm sure the Wildcats will look to slow the game down since they know Auburn loves to control the tempo by going fast, faster and then even faster. I bet Auburn will look to make Jake Waters one dimensional by placing a spy on him so he can't run wild. That could open up things a bunch for WR Tyler Lockett. The Auburn secondary had some troubles with the San Jose State receiving core. They got burned deep early in that one by Tyler Ervin and had other opportunities that they let slip by the wayside. Arkansas also had some chances to go downfield that they let go by the wayside. I fully expect Waters and Lockett to have their moments and for the Wildcats as a whole to play a lot better than they did against Iowa State, but I'm going to take Auburn in this one. As I stated above, I think they'll be better prepared for a first true road game this year than they were last year and believe while K-State has some solid talent on the defensive side of the ball, there's only so much they'll be able to do to keep Auburn's offense at bay. They'll put up a solid fight, but Auburn will get some breathing room late in the game and take a tough win in the Little Apple and then return home to take on Louisiana Tech.

My Call: Auburn 41, Kansas State 31